To judge which challenge mattered most, set criteria: breadth, depth, length and links to the other challenges.
Questions may ask which challenge was most serious, or whether one challenge caused the others. Set clear criteria before you judge.
The oil crises had the widest reach. They hit almost every economy and ended the Golden Age. They also set off the other challenges, through petrodollars and high interest rates.
The debt crises did the deepest damage to some regions. They cost Latin America a decade of growth and threatened major Western banks. But industrial economies recovered from the mid-1980s.
Protectionism was the longest-lasting challenge but the least dramatic. It distorted trade for two decades without stopping trade growth.
A good judgement explains how the challenges were linked. It can then argue which was the root cause and which did the most harm.
- Criteria
- Breadth, depth, length and links.
- Oil crises
- Widest reach; set off other challenges.
- Debt crises
- Deepest damage in Latin America and Africa.
Worked example: Applying criteria
Which challenge was the most serious?
- Breadth: the oil crises, which hit nearly every country.
- Depth: the debt crises, which caused a lost decade.
- Length: protectionism, which lasted two decades.
- Judgement: the oil crises, because they helped cause the other two.
Watch out for this
The most serious challenge is simply the one that lasted longest.
Length is one criterion. You also need to weigh breadth, depth and links to the other challenges.
Check your understanding
Which argument best supports the oil crises as the most serious challenge?
- They hit nearly every economy and set off the debt crisis.
- They affected only the Middle East.
- They were caused by protectionism.