Nuclear Power: Climate Fix or Risky Bet?
Renewed interest in nuclear power for low-carbon energy faces old fears of safety and waste, despite new tech like SMRs.
Topics: technology, environment, politics
Example
In its 2023 update to its Net Zero Roadmap, the International Energy Agency (IEA) found that in a path to net-zero emissions by 2050, global nuclear power capacity roughly doubles from today. On 2 December 2023, at the COP28 climate talks, 22 countries, including the US, France, Japan and the UK, pledged to work towards tripling nuclear capacity by 2050. Yet fears from accidents such as Fukushima Daiichi in 2011, together with high costs and the problem of long-term waste storage, still divide public opinion.
Key facts
- The IEA's 2023 Net Zero Roadmap update has nuclear capacity roughly doubling by 2050 on the path to net zero.
- At COP28 in December 2023, 22 countries pledged to work towards tripling nuclear energy capacity by 2050.
Limitations
- Pledges are not plans: new reactors often run years late and over budget, and several countries, such as Germany, have moved away from nuclear power.
Evaluations
technology evaluation
Support
Nuclear plants produce large amounts of steady, low-carbon power regardless of weather, complementing wind and solar.
Counterargument
Recent Western projects, such as Hinkley Point C in the UK and Vogtle in the US, ran years late and billions over budget.
Rebuttal
Small modular reactors aim to cut costs through factory building, but none was yet operating commercially in Western countries, so the promise is unproven.
Additional support
Singapore has begun studying advanced nuclear options for the long term, showing even small states reconsidering the technology.
environment evaluation
Support
The IEA's net zero path includes doubling nuclear because it avoids carbon emissions at scale.
Counterargument
Spent fuel stays dangerous for thousands of years, and few countries have built permanent storage.
Rebuttal
Finland's Onkalo deep repository shows permanent storage is technically possible, though politically hard elsewhere.
Additional support
Fukushima's evacuation, not radiation itself, caused most of the deaths linked to the disaster, a point experts make about risk perception.
politics evaluation
Support
The COP28 pledge shows governments again treating nuclear as part of climate and energy security policy, especially after the 2022 gas price shock.
Counterargument
Germany closed its last reactors in April 2023, showing public fear can outweigh climate arguments in democracies.
Rebuttal
Different choices reflect each country's history and politics; there is no single global answer on nuclear power.
Additional support
Big technology firms have signed deals to buy nuclear power for data centres, adding private demand to government plans.
Sources
- World Nuclear News (2023-09-27): IEA sees greater role for nuclear in attaining net-zero by 2050
- OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (2023-12-02): Countries launch joint declaration to triple nuclear energy capacity by 2050 at COP28
More GP guides for this example
Topic guides
- Politics and Governance GP Examples
- Science and Technology GP Examples
- Environment and Climate GP Examples