Middle Powers: New Players, New Rules
Examines the growing diplomatic power of middle-tier nations like Turkey, as they take independent actions to address global challenges amidst great power competition.
Topics: politics, technology
Example
On 22 July 2022, Turkey and the UN brokered the Black Sea Grain Initiative between Russia and Ukraine, which reopened a safe shipping corridor from Ukrainian ports during the war. Before Russia withdrew on 17 July 2023, ships carried about 32.9 million tonnes of grain and other food out of Ukraine. Turkey, a NATO member that kept talking to Moscow, used its control of the straits into the Black Sea and its ties with both sides to make the deal possible.
Key facts
- The UN and Turkey brokered the Black Sea Grain Initiative on 22 July 2022.
- About 32.9 million tonnes of food were exported under the deal before Russia withdrew on 17 July 2023.
Limitations
- The deal lasted a year and Russia ended it, so it shows a middle power's influence within limits set by the great powers involved.
Evaluations
politics evaluation
Support
Turkey could mediate because it kept relations with both Russia and Ukraine and controls the straits, showing middle powers' leverage comes from position and balance.
Counterargument
Russia ended the deal in 2023 when its demands on its own exports were not met, showing the great power still decided the outcome.
Rebuttal
A year of exports still mattered greatly for food prices; middle powers can achieve real results even if they cannot make them permanent.
Additional support
Ukraine later opened its own shipping corridor without Russian agreement, showing the deal was one step in a changing situation.
technology evaluation
Support
A joint inspection centre in Istanbul checked ships, showing practical arrangements can build limited trust between enemies.
Counterargument
Sea mines and drone attacks kept shipping risky, so arrangements on paper did not remove physical danger.
Rebuttal
Insurance and inspection systems still let trade flow, which shows how technical cooperation can work even in war.
Additional support
Satellite tracking of ships let outside observers check the deal was working, adding transparency.
Sources
- S&P Global Commodity Insights (2023-07-17): Russia halts Black Sea grain deal as demands remain unfulfilled