Income, education, healthcare and culture shape birth and death rates; jobs, wages and safety drive migration.
Birth rates tend to be lower in richer countries. Women have more education and more job choices, so many marry later and have fewer children. Raising children costs more. Contraception is easier to get, and pensions mean parents rely less on children in old age.
Birth rates tend to be higher where many children die young, where children help on farms, or where culture or religion values large families.
Death rates fall with better healthcare, clean water, sanitation and diet. They are higher where these are lacking, or during wars, famines and pandemics.
Migration is driven by push and pull factors. People are pulled towards better jobs, higher wages, safety and better services. They are pushed away by unemployment, poverty, conflict and natural disasters.
- Lower birth rates
- Higher income, women's education and jobs, contraception, cost of children.
- Lower death rates
- Healthcare, clean water, sanitation, diet.
- Migration
- Pull: jobs, wages, safety. Push: unemployment, conflict, disaster.
Worked example: Singapore's low birth rate
Singapore's fertility rate fell below 1.0 child per woman in 2023, one of the lowest in the world.
- Cost: housing, education and childcare are expensive.
- Careers: many women and men work long hours and delay starting families.
- Policy response: baby bonuses, parental leave and childcare subsidies aim to reduce the cost of having children.
- Migration: immigration helps offset the low birth rate.
Watch out for this
People in poorer countries have more children because they do not know about contraception.
Access to contraception is one factor. Others include high child death rates, children's work on family farms, the lack of pensions, and cultural values.
Check your understanding
Why do birth rates usually fall as a country gets richer?
- Raising children costs more, and women have more education and job choices.
- Healthcare gets worse.
- Fewer people get married.